Something happened in June. Then, it happened again in July. As the months are closed and the financial statements printed, almost all of my TEC members are reporting that something weird is going on. And, it isn't good.
Some members say orders softened unexpectedly. Some noted a decrease in their backlogs. Some saw raw material costs increase to unforeseen levels, eroding relatively healthy profit margins. Others told me they felt uncomfortable with what was going on "out there." They were suddenly queasy. Even the TEC members who were able to maintain margins said things just didn't feel right. It was hard to explain.
Most of these CEOs began contemplating corrective action. Put a hold on that equipment purchase for a while. Want to hire two people? Get by with one for now. This is also about the time most TEC chairs start asking TEC members about Plan B. That is, a business plan that allows the company to make money with 20% less revenue. After the last recession, numerous TEC members reported that having a Plan B saved them from decision making in crisis. They knew what to cut, who to lay off and what to stop doing...in advance.
The current uncertainty feels somehow different than the financial meltdown of 2008. This uncertainty has led a few members to construct a Plan B1. That is, what do we need to do to take advantage of a 20% premium, above plan, in revenue. Competitors may be paralyzed into non-action. Market share may be there for the taking. The Balance Sheet gets particularly important here.
This is no esoteric exercise. It is a highly desirable time to create Plan B, at least until that ugly feeling goes away. It is also, however, an opportune time to create Plan B1. Others may miss the opportunity created by the uncertainty.
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